Afghan Conflict - Scenario Mapping

Predicting the future is a trade of its own. What the future holds has been a mysterie fascinating man kind since the early days. With predicting you can either get it right or wrong. The closest to the prediction probably comes the planning approach. This is applied widely in science and planning. A specific concept of scenario planning was developed in the 60's. The idea is to analyse the current situation and test possible future options. Along 'factual' parameters a solution corridor can be defined, within which the options can take place. Defining factors can be policies, time requirements or resources.



Image taken from the Afghan Conflict / Detail. Stay or Leave?.

A very beautiful example of this technique was recently developed in the context of a Politikvisualisierung lecture in winter 2009/2010 at the Fachhochschule Potsdam. The Afghan Conflict is concerned with possible scenarios for the future of Afghanistan. The country is still in the prime light of the world as everyone follows the developments. The informations are often disconnected and mainly focused on military activities. To see some of the elements cleanly arranged and put in relation to one another makes it possible to orientate.



Image taken from the Afghan Conflict / View of the print, old 164cm x 70cm Print.

"The Afghan Conflict - A Map of Possible Scenarios starts with the current Timeline, a single line on the map. Which then splits into more and more possible future scenarios currently discussed. The scenarios split and join, or lead to other ones according to events that may take place or decisions made. The design is pure and minimalistic, using only lines and typographic elements, which does not resemble the ugliness of a war, but helps understanding a complex structure of problems without being visually manipulated by polemic images."

The work is developed by Pierre la Baume, Karen Hentschel and Marc Tiedemann. They can be contacted via info [at] theafghanconflict .de
In the prezy below you can explore the resulting map in its totality.

Found via datavisualization.ch